A.Rublev vs Y.Nishioka prediction
A.Rublev
Y.Nishioka
A.Rublev
Andrei arrives at the Shanghai Masters as the 13th seed, granting him a bye past the first round. Admittedly, the Asian leg hasn't been the most flattering for his singles format yet, with setbacks in both Hangzhou and Beijing. However, we shouldn't overlook the fact that Rublev has already acclimated to the Chinese courts. Just recently, on October 1st, he teamed up with Karen Khachanov to play in the doubles final at a Beijing tournament, which showcases his solid adaptability and good practice on these local hard surfaces.
Andrei's playing style is well-known – he's a powerhouse from the baseline dominated by a killer forehand. On fast courts, such a style is highly rewarding. Furthermore, his head-to-head history with Nishioka is in his favor: Rublev leads by 3-2, winning the last two encounters on hard courts in straight sets.
Y.Nishioka
The Japanese tennis player, currently ranked 157th globally, secured a spot in the main draw after moving deftly through the qualifying rounds. In Shanghai, he has notched three consecutive victories without dropping a set. In the main draw's first round, Yoshihito confidently toppled Alexander Shevchenko – 6:1, 6:2.
On the surface, this appears impressive. Yet, if we delve deeper, this win over Shevchenko marked Nishioka's first success in an ATP main draw since this July. Prior to arriving in Shanghai, the Japanese player endured a long streak of disappointments, including losses in the Davis Cup and the first round in Tokyo.
Nishioka is a player of a completely different mold compared to Rublev. Lacking a powerful serve and bombarding groundstrokes due to his height (170 cm), he bases his game on tactics, patience, and capitalizing on his opponent's mistakes. His brand of tennis is all about constant movement and breaking his opponent's rhythm across the court.
Prediction
So, what can we conclude? On one hand, we have a refreshed Rublev, starting his campaign in the second round. True, his recent singles results don't dazzle, but his defeat at the hands of Flavio Cobolli (6:7, 3:6) in Beijing must have ignited a spark in him. He fully grasps that there's no room for error against a player ranked in the lower hundreds.
On the flip side, there's Nishioka, who has gained momentum in Shanghai, breezing through qualifying and the opening round. He's already familiar with the courts, riding the rhythm of the game. Yet, the caliber of his opponents so far pales in comparison to Rublev's class. While the Japanese ace excels in lengthy rallies, his defensive prowess may falter in the face of Andrei's relentless power.
A crucial element will be this stylistic clash. Rublev will be in constant attack mode, hammering balls and denying the Japanese any chance for his crafty sequences. On fast hard courts, the advantage always lies with the aggressor. Considering their recent head-to-heads, where Andrei emerged victorious, it's hard to see how Nishioka can put forward a competitive battle. Rublev should secure a comfortable win. I'm backing Rublev with a handicap of -3.5 at odds of 1.75.
