Ak Bars vs Lokomotiv prediction
Ak Bars
Anvar Gatiyatulina’s squad demonstrated remarkable consistency through the Gagarin Cup playoff bracket, confidently advancing all the way to the finals. They outplayed Traktor with a 4-1 series win and delivered a sweeping 4-0 defeat to Dynamo Minsk, which was quite the upset. Even against the formidable Metallurg Magnitogorsk, they managed to prevail, losing just one match. Now, faced with Lokomotiv, the challenge is significantly stiffer, as expected in a final showdown.
Kazan’s journey in the final began with a loss (1-3), but they bounced back in spectacular fashion, delivering a crushing 5-1 victory over Yaroslavl on their own icy turf, where Mitch Miller secured a hat-trick. He also scored the lone goal for Kazan in the third encounter, but it wasn’t enough to claim victory (1-4). In the fourth match, goals from Galimov and Khmelevsky were sufficient to level the series once more. Just the other day, playing in Yaroslavl, the Kazan club arguably delivered their weakest performance of the entire playoff. It wasn’t merely the score, a 1-4 loss, but the quality of hockey left much to be desired. They were outshot with attempts of 26-39, and the usual fierce attack seemed conspicuously absent.
Lokomotiv
Bob Hartley’s team only stumbled once in their first nine playoff games, and that was in overtime to Spartak (1-2). They effortlessly sailed past Salavat Yulaev (4-0), facing minimal adversity. The semifinal duel with Avangard, however, was far less assured. In fact, Loco was teetering on the brink of elimination, trailing 0-2 in the sixth game in Omsk. Still, Shalunov’s brace, with Radulov assisting twice, ensured a miraculous recovery, while Rafikov clinched the victory in overtime.
In the decisive seventh match, once again, they had to dig deep. Trailing 1-3, the Yaroslavl side fought back, and Berezkin scored the winning goal in overtime, propelling the ‘Railroaders’ into the finals. As for the series against Ak Bars, Radulov has been somewhat subdued (just 0+1 in the last four games). Nonetheless, he remains among the leading playoff scorers, standing third with 17 points (6+11), accompanied by Shalunov, Kayumov, and Panik who also feature in the top 10.
Prediction
A clear pattern has emerged in this series, with opponents alternating victories and losses, which logically points to an Ak Bars victory today, potentially leading to a seventh match. I share this sentiment, considering the overall playoff performance, especially the finals. Beyond mere logic, several factors provide hope for at least a draw in regulation time for Ak Bars.
Firstly, in the Gagarin Cup rounds, Ak Bars has played nine matches, emerging victorious in eight. Contrastingly, Lokomotiv has only secured a win once in the last four away games within the regular three periods. Then, if we take the stretch from the regular season, in the last 17 matches at ‘Tatnef Arena’, the Kazan team lost only once within 60 minutes.
Moreover, the goalkeepers’ factor plays a crucial role in the finals. Isaev for Loko performs admirably, but Bilyalov also occasionally delivers mind-blowing performances, almost single-handedly leading his team to victory. Interestingly, Bilyalov boasts a 92.22% save rate in the playoffs and a 2.21 goals-against average.
I believe after today's match, we won’t yet know the Gagarin Cup winner. In any case, Ak Bars playing on their home ice suggests we can expect another gripping contest. Objectively speaking, both teams are evenly matched across most categories, and it’s hard to imagine the ‘bars’ yielding too easily.
