Arsenal vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen prediction
Arsenal
Arsenal will need to stick to their usual game plan and squeeze out just enough effort to advance. Arteta is a cautious manager, always looking to minimize risks. This was clear when he fielded his top players, even if some were injured, for a rather insignificant Champions League match against Inter, instead of saving their energy for crucial Premier League fixtures.
If things don't go according to his plan, there's a significant chance of faltering. Bayer already demonstrated this in their home match, where Arsenal was saved only by a penalty kick in the 89th minute from Havertz. While their tackle success rate and duel wins remain impressive, they struggle heavily against ultra-aggressive, disruptive tactics.
Just three days ago, Arsenal narrowly secured three points against Everton with a 2-0 win, scoring their first goal in the 89th minute and sealing the deal at 90+7, thanks to Djokerish and Dauman. Out for this match are the long-absent Merino, as well as Ødegaard and Timber.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
The Germans faced a true test of resilience, having played against two of Europe's strongest teams this week without losing. As noted, they nearly won the first match against Arsenal but ended up with a 1-1 draw due to a costly error leading to a penalty. Andrich was both their goal scorer and also the first to be carded early in the game. Despite this, Bayer dominated the second half, putting pressure on an Arsenal side that had perhaps underestimated the challenge.
Their second test was against Bayern, also ending in a 1-1 draw. Like the first game, Bayer took the lead early but couldn't capitalize on their numerical advantage after a Bayern red card, despite forcing the opponent into two dismissals. This was one of Bayern's most disoriented performances this season.
Securing two draws against top-tier clubs with a depleted squad leaves Bayer as a wildcard for the return leg.
Prediction
Despite their previous results and performance this season making them favorites, Arsenal should take Bayer's first match display as a serious warning, just as Bayern must have after losing their grip on dominance and engaging in fouls that led to two red cards.
Bayer has been consistently underestimated, costing their opponents with consistent 1-1 draws. Both matches required their opponents to mount a comeback. Coach Julmann is incredibly adaptable, reshaping the team in-game like no other, as evidenced by the drastic shift against Arsenal in the second half. They almost walked away with a win but were spared by sheer luck.
This won't be an easy match up for Arsenal, who will likely concede. Respectfully towards Arteta, but Julmann clearly outsmarted him in the initial encounter.
