Avai vs Chapecoense prediction

The home team is currently in a bind, to put it mildly. They're stuck in a serious slump. Eight games in the second division without a win! Eight! This is starting to look like a systemic issue.

In their last Serie B outing, they hosted Criciuma and lost again, 1:2. The most concerning part? The quality of their play. Sure, they controlled possession 57% of the time. But what good is that sterile possession if they can't convert it? Their opponents completely outplayed them in terms of clear-cut chances. My favorite metric, expected goals (xG), makes this clear: a measly 0.56 for Avai compared to a confident 1.14 for the visitors. The team just doesn't know what to do with the ball in the final third.

Adding to their woes, Kaua de Almeida's coaching team is dealing with a dreadful injury epidemic. The infirmary is overflowing. Midfielder Pedro Cuiaba, a key element in the center of the pitch, underwent knee surgery and hasn't been in the squad since March. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Several key players couldn't participate in the last match due to various injuries. Alison, Cristiano, Jefferson Maciel, Rafael Bilu, and Ze Ricardo were all out of the game. The club is forced to patch up the lineup by playing untested youngsters.

Yes, it's the Cup final, and the club management even made entry to the Ressacada Stadium free, thanks to sponsorship from Legacy Comex. They're eager to ensure a full house. But a raucous crowd alone won't fill up an empty infirmary, and the players' confidence won't magically return overnight.

The situation looks far more positive for the visitors. Chapecoense is competing in the elite Serie A. That fact alone indicates a higher level of preparedness and completely different speeds at which the team is accustomed to playing.

In their last match before the cup final, they faced off against the league leaders, the mighty Palmeiras, on their turf. They lost 0:1, but played magnificently. Just take a look at the match statistics. Away from home, against the top team, Chapecoense outdid the opponent in possession—52% to 48%. They had more shots—15 compared to 13. And most importantly, they recorded an impressive xG of 1.20 versus the home team's 0.65!

They were simply unlucky towards the end of that match. First, after a prolonged VAR check, the referee disallowed Italo's goal due to a highly debatable foul in the attacking phase. Then, in the 63rd minute of the second half, star forward Yannick Bolasie struck the crossbar with a penalty. Frustrating? Incredibly. But the quality of football played by the team was top-notch.

Moreover, the club is experiencing an emotional uplift. Management appointed a new head coach—ambitious 41-year-old Raphael Lacerda. Alongside him, the coaching staff was bolstered by seasoned fitness coach Gladston Ananias and analyst Mateus Bolivar. Their preparations for the final have been thorough, training right in the state at the Figueirense base, ensuring there won't be any issues with acclimatization.

Let's not forget that Chapecoense has shown remarkable consistency in this Cup. Over eight tournament matches, they've secured five wins, two draws, and only one defeat. That's an impressive 70.8% of points collected. The team has an incredible knack for delivering results in a knockout format.