Ajax vs Groningen prediction
Ajax
The team led by Oscar Garcia wrapped up the regular season in 5th place, which means they'll now have to fight for a spot in the Conference League through the playoffs. On one hand, the 'red and whites' fell just two points short of the Europa League and three points from the Champions League qualifiers. However, they faced a challenging end to the season, and I doubt Ajax can be seen as the clear favorites in today's clash.
Since late January, when Ajax fell to Olympiacos in another group stage match of the Champions League (1-2), the club has played 16 more fixtures, winning only 4. Those last two victories came away, against the two season's biggest underdogs in the Netherlands.
Moreover, Ajax hasn't won any of their last five home games, conceding 2 goals in four of those matches. It's one thing drawing 2-2 with PSV, but they recorded the same score with Volendam, also an underdog. They even lost 1-2 to both Twente and Utrecht.
Groningen
Dick Lukkien's team, thanks in no small part to victories in the championship's last two rounds, managed to hold on to a playoff spot. They defeated both NEC Nijmegen and Heracles by the same score of 2-1, showcasing victories over the league's main underdog and a team that reached the Champions League.
Moreover, Groningen scored exactly 2 goals in each of their last three games. Looking at their last 10 battles, they achieved this feat in 7 of those matches. Among the team's standout players, I'd highlight Tom van Bergen, who made it to the top 20 scorers list with 9 goals and 4 assists. Overall, the second half of the season, especially towards the end, was much more productive in terms of goals.
Prediction
Judging from their league table standings, Ajax is certainly positioned as the favorite; however, that's possibly the only advantage Garcia's squad holds against Groningen at this point in the tournament. The prediction that the visitors will manage to net at least 1-2 goals is based on multiple factors. For instance, Ajax hasn't won any of their past 5 home matches, conceding 2 goals in four of them. On the other hand, Groningen has scored at least 2 goals in 7 out of their last 10 games, indicating their current strong offensive form.
Additionally, since 2025, Groningen has succumbed to Ajax just once in three head-to-head encounters, drawing 2-2 and even defeating them 3-1 in March 2026. With such a record, it seems likely that Groningen's players will have every opportunity for success and can definitely aim to score at least 1-2 goals, considering their consistent performance in the last 10 league rounds as well as the three direct matchups.
