Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens prediction
Buffalo Sabres
Lindy Ruff's team has been delighting their fans with impressive performances this season. After finishing second in the conference in the regular season, the club overcame Boston (4:2) and have already taken the lead in the quarter-final series against Montreal, defeating them in the first game with a score of 4:2.
However, there are a few aspects that remain concerning. For instance, in their last match, the Sabres managed only 16 shots on goal. On the one hand, their conversion rate is off the charts at 25%, but on the other, they need more threats on home turf, as the next battle may not end as favorably. Moreover, reflecting on their clash with the Bruins, the "Blades" took the first battle (4:3), only to face defeat in the second game (2:4). It's crucial to remember that both losses in that series happened on their home ice.
Montreal Canadiens
As for Marten San-Louis' team, after a grueling seven-game battle with Tampa, they haven't fully recuperated – not just physically, but emotionally as well. It's worth noting that the Canadiens concluded the first three games with the Lightning in overtime, with a total of four overtimes in the series. Plus, when looking at their away performances, they have only faced two losses in regular time out of their last twelve road games, and just one playoff loss within the three regulation periods. Throughout the season, the Canadian club has performed convincingly on foreign ice, accumulating a healthy amount of points. They had plenty of opportunities in their last game, most of their 28 shots were dangerous, but the opposing goalie played outstandingly.
Prediction
Relying on the aforementioned information, firstly, Montreal won their final head-to-head regular-season matchup, which also took place at KeyBank Center. Secondly, Buffalo started with a win over Boston but lost their second home game. Thirdly, two out of the Sabres' four goals came from power plays, motivating the visitors to play more disciplined.
Undoubtedly, the hosts have a good chance of winning, with an estimated victory probability of around 60%, yet Montreal has shown they can be defensively strict, even against highly aggressive opponents. Additionally, Jakub Dobes has proven to perform better in the playoffs than the regular season: his save percentage was 90.12% during the regular season and has increased to 91.04% now.
In conclusion, in my view, Buffalo doesn't have a significant class advantage, and as the previous round demonstrated, Montreal has every chance to at least secure a draw in regular time.
