G.Mpetshi Perricard vs C.Moutet prediction
G.Mpetshi Perricard
G.Mpetshi Perricard
The French derby is set on the grass courts of London. Despite being over 50 spots ahead of his compatriot in the ATP rankings, Moutet is still considered the underdog. Let's delve into the reasons why.
After suffering an injury in February, Mpeshi didn't perform well on clay. However, the transition to grass has turned the tide. The Frenchman now fully leverages his primary weapon - the serve. Giovanni aims to play aggressively with his serve, often concluding the rally within 1-2 strokes, leaving his opponent no time to adjust to the ball. This year on grass, Mpeshi has averaged 20 aces per match! In Stuttgart, he advanced to the quarter-finals, losing to Bublik only in two tight tie-breaks. Sasha couldn’t break him even once. In London, the Frenchman breezed through the qualifiers, dismissing the tournament’s second seed Kovacevic 6-3, 6-4 with ease.
C.Moutet
This season has been a straight-up disaster for Moutet. In 2026, Corentin managed to win only 36% of his matches. For a player in the TOP-35, that's catastrophically low. In contrast, Mpeshi boasts a 50% win rate. Moutet arrived in London riding a six-match losing streak in official tournaments, with losses against lower-ranked opponents, including Llamas (122). The victory against the veteran Wawrinka in an exhibition doesn’t count in my book. The ball just seems to slip through this Frenchman's fingers. The switch to grass didn’t yield results either. Moutet crashed out in the first round in Stuttgart against Kyrgios with a score of 3-6, 4-6. His dreadful first serve (56% accuracy) and weak return (no breaks) indicate Moutet's poor readiness for this encounter.
Prediction
Mpeshi simply looks better during this phase of the season. He unleashes his finest qualities on grass. Over the last five matches, he’s only lost one of his serves. Giovanni consistently delivers around 20 aces on average over the past three years on grass. His achievements include reaching the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2024. His killer serve followed by a net approach leaves little room for his opponents to break. Moreover, Mpeshi rarely falters on his second serve. Meanwhile, Moutet continues his downward spiral. He struggles with returns and frequently makes errors on his first serve. Although Corentin usually excels with baseline shots, Mpeshi is likely to approach the net more frequently, preventing his opponent from exploiting his strengths. Giovanni’s speed allows him to chase down short balls with ease. Overall, Mpeshi has fully adapted to the local surfaces and looks hungry for victory. I believe he’ll clinch the win in the battle of compatriots.
