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Dynamo Kyiv vs Obolon prediction
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv is in splendid form under the helm of Oleksandr Shovkovskyi. Following a decisive 2-0 victory over Kryvbas, the capital squad confidently leads the championship, boasting 60 points after 24 rounds and maintaining a 6-point advantage over their closest contender, Oleksandriya.
The team's unbeaten streak in the UPL has reached an impressive 26 matches, encompassing 20 wins and 6 draws, with their last defeat as far back as May of last year. Moreover, they haven't conceded a goal in four consecutive games, highlighting the exceptional condition of their defensive lineup.
In the ranks of the blue and whites, Andriy Yarmolenko shines brightly, having recently scored his 200th goal in Ukrainian career in the last round. Meanwhile, Vladyslav Vanat continues to top the league's scoring chart with 14 goals. Just days ago, the club renewed its contract with team leader Vitaliy Buyalskyi, adding a wave of positivity within the team.
However, there are some setbacks—defender Denys Popov, who received a red card in the match against Kryvbas, and Volodymyr Brazhko, serving a suspension due to an accumulation of yellow cards, will not be able to support the team in the upcoming game.
Obolon
The capital's "Brewery" has been on an upswing this spring. Sergei Shishchenko's team secured back-to-back victories, allowing them to escape the relegation play-off zone and climb to the 12th spot in the standings. First, they defeated Inhulets 1-0, and in the last round, a fortuitous own goal by Chornomorets' goalkeeper handed Obolon another three points.
The Brewers have snatched crucial 6 points in their battle to stay in the league's top tier, putting them in a much better position. The Kyiv side now sits on 24 points and continues their fight to maintain their elite status.
Obolon has struggled in attack, scoring a mere 14 goals in 24 matches — the league's second-lowest tally. Nevertheless, the team has learned the art of grinding out results and avoiding heavy defeats.
Interestingly, in their recent face-off in the Ukrainian Cup for the 2023/2024 season, Obolon sensationally knocked Dynamo out of the tournament, proving that anything is possible in a derby.
Prediction
Despite the class difference between the teams, there are compelling reasons to believe that Obolon won't lose by more than a single goal.
Firstly, in 9 out of 10 of their past away games, Obolon hasn't conceded by more than a one-goal margin—they've learned the discipline of a tight defense.
Secondly, in 13 out of their last 19 matches, Dynamo hasn’t won by more than a single goal—often securing narrow victories.
Thirdly, Dynamo is weakened with the absence of two key defenders—Popov and Brazhko—which could impact the home team's defensive play.
Fourthly, Obolon is in good spirits following two consecutive victories, which boosts their confidence.
Lastly, Dynamo's last four wins were all at 2-0, demonstrating that Shovkovskyi's side does not aim to demolish opponents but rather to claim their three points with minimal effort.
Considering all these factors, betting on Obolon to cover a (+1.5) spread seems promising, despite the 5-1 thrashing in the first round. Obolon should manage to put up a worthy fight in this Kyiv derby and avoid a heavy defeat.
