France vs England prediction
France
France's semifinal against Spain turned into a disaster, leaving no room for argument. Yet, it would be unfair to judge Didier Deschamps' team based solely on one unfortunate evening. Prior to the clash with the Spaniards, France had an impeccable record, winning all six matches in the World Cup. Six out of six. And in the knockout stage, they relentless outplayed Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco, not conceding a single goal.
This noteworthy achievement wasn't a fluke. France reached the semifinals for a reason, being a stable, aggressive, and formidable force upfront. Over the first six games, they registered 16 goals, averaging 2.67 per match. With 110 shots, 47 on target, and 27 clear scoring chances, France ranked as the tournament's best in shots on target.
The quarterfinal against Morocco was particularly telling. France registered 22 shots compared to Morocco's five, led expected goals 3.05 to 0.14, and created five major chances. They effectively shut Morocco down in defense, securing a comfortable 2-0 victory.
Previously, they had a tricky match against Paraguay. The opposition played very defensively and took few risks, yet France still found their goal. Holding 76% possession, 15 to 5 shots, 5 on target vs none, and a 12 to 2 advantage on corners. Even against the tightest defenses, the French persisted and triumphed.
I appreciate France's off-the-ball work too. They actively press, swiftly recover after losing possession, striving not to let opponents start attacks smoothly. By the semifinals, they managed 1,339 pressing attempts and regained possession in the final third 126 times, almost the tournament's best.
This style of play should work against England. In recent matches, England faltered under pressure, struggling when forced to make quick decisions. Against high pressure, Thomas Tuchel's side often lost accuracy, reducing their attack to sporadic moments.
The Spain defeat doesn't deter my support for France. They managed 10 shots and earned seven corners in that match. In the second half, they had 53% possession and eight shots at goal. While the quality of chances was lacking, at least they attempted to change the game and kept attacking until the end.
Now, they have a chance to swiftly redeem themselves. The third-place match isn't the final, but no team wants to end a World Cup with consecutive losses. For this squad, a bronze medal would indeed confirm a strong tournament.
England
England did make it far as well, but their journey was anything but smooth. Thomas Tuchel's squad faced immense pressure in their last three matches, spending huge energy reserves.
They first overcame Mexico 3-2 — a decent result, yet the match itself left many questions. Mexico dominated possession with 67%, unleashed 20 shots, and delivered 12 corners. England only managed six shots, squeezing results out of minimal moments created.
In the quarters, they faced Norway. With regular time ending in a draw, England endured all 120 minutes, securing victory through Jude Bellingham's goal in extra time. Again, they got the result, but it certainly wasn't an easy match.
Following that strain, they met Argentina, where their vulnerabilities clearly showed. Possession was only 36%, and they lost the shot tally 5 to 15 with expected goals falling 0.53 to 1.84. The second half was glaring: 27% possession and 4 to 13 in shots.
In other words, England gradually relinquished control. Initially to Mexico, then to Norway in the second half, and finally to Argentina. France is at least equal in quality and attack speed to these opponents, with plenty of chances to pressurize England.
There's also the calendar factor. France played their semifinal on July 14, while England's was on July 15. The French have an extra day for recovery. Plus, France's quarterfinal was decided in regular time, whereas England spent an additional 30 minutes against Norway. In the closing stages of a lengthy tournament, even such a slight difference can be pivotal.
Motivation poses a separate question. Tuchel has openly expressed little interest in the third-place game, which rings alarm bells for me. Players can say the right things, but the coach's attitude inevitably filters through.
England has historically struggled to maintain concentration throughout. Now they must recover after a painful loss to Argentina with shorter rest. Meanwhile, they'll face a France team keen on high presses and capitalizing on errors during transitions.
Prediction
I see France as the deserving favorites. It's not just about the big names on the roster. Throughout the tournament, Deschamps' side proved stronger as a system. Up to the semifinals, they won six consecutive matches, scoring 16 goals and achieving three consecutive clean sheets in the knockout phase.
France offers more attacking options. Kylian Mbappé can turn the tide with his speed or individual flair. Ousmane Dembélé is a dribbling threat. Michael Olise and Désiré Doué contribute to creating opportunities between the lines. Even if a key player falters, France has alternate ways to breach defenses.
Moreover, France boasts a strong bench. Deschamps can freshen up the flanks, midfield, or attack without dropping the team's overall level. In the third-place match, where more spaces often appear post-break, squad depth becomes particularly crucial.
England comes into the game after grueling extra time against Norway and a semifinal where Argentina seized full control. In the second half, they allowed 13 shots. France usually capitalizes on such volumes of chances.
I anticipate the French will aim to dominate territory from the get-go, applying high pressure, forcing England into long balls more often. Should France open the scoring, England would need to open up, a scenario tailor-made for Mbappé, Dembélé, and other swift French attackers.
Thus, my pick is a win for France in regular time. The odds at 1.86 are reasonable. The French have been more consistent throughout the tournament, enjoyed extra rest, have a deeper bench, and appear better equipped for open play.
