France vs Senegal prediction

Internationals. World Cup. 2026. Final Tournament. USA, Canada, Mexico. Group Stage. Round 1
France
16 June 2026
3:1
0:0
Senegal
Stadium
США МетЛайф Стэдиум, Ист-Ратерфорд
Referee
Австралия Алиреза Фагани
4.1 YC avg.
0.06 RC avg.
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Александр Фортунов
Sports expert
Author Statistics
Author predictions statistics in category "Asian Handicap" for previous week.
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Predictions
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France

Didier Deschamps
Coach since Jul 8, 2012

The French team enters the World Cup with impressive readiness. Didier Deschamps boasts a remarkably deep roster, featuring their star striker Kylian Mbappe and an in-form Michael Olise. In their last friendly against Northern Ireland, Olise was in scintillating form, netting a hat-trick and helping France to a 3-1 victory.

France dominated possession, holding the ball 72% of the match and firing 27 shots on target. Their expected goals (xG) surpassed 2.91, showcasing their dominance on the pitch. Mbappe had a quiet run in friendlies, a fact he calmly justified to his coach, mentioning he was saving his goals for the main event in America.

This tournament is particularly significant as it marks Didier Deschamps' farewell from the national team. A new coach will take over in September. The players are well aware of this and are motivated to give their legendary coach a glorious send-off.

Consider the internal competition: young Désiré Doué has edged Bradley Barcola out of the starting line-up. The midfield will showcase the tested duo of Tchouaméni and Rabiot.

Team leaders are on an emotional high; defender William Saliba recently clinched the English championship with Arsenal, and five players are fresh off a Champions League victory with PSG. This team has a winning mentality ingrained in them.

Furthermore, official match statistics favor the French team. They've won five of their last seven official encounters by at least a two-goal margin. In crucial matches, class always shines through.

Senegal

Senegal arrives at the tournament as the reigning African champions, but they're facing numerous questions about their current form. Their preparation for the World Cup has been worryingly inconsistent.

First, they suffered a 2-3 defeat to the US, followed by a lackluster goalless draw against Saudi Arabia. Senegal's attacking game is struggling, with clear ideas on how to break defenses seemingly lacking.

In the recent match against Saudi Arabia, they managed a mere 0.41 xG, with no dangerous moments throughout the match. Senegal's talisman, Sadio Mané, made several blunders, and an early mistake nearly led to a goal against them. Such errors would be unforgivable against France's pressing game.

The main concern for Senegal right now is their defense. The team struggles immensely without their leader, Kalidou Koulibaly, whose status is doubtful due to a thigh injury.

Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy was the team's savior in friendlies, making two crucial saves against Saudi Arabia. However, if your goalkeeper has to play the hero in matches against weaker teams, facing the likes of Mbappe and Olise offers little hope.

Add to this visa issues plaguing fans—many, including leading fan movement figures, haven't been granted US visas, meaning New Jersey stands won't have their usual rabid support. Nobody will be there to put pressure on the French.

Prediction

The disparity in player quality is evident. The French team outclasses their opponents across all positions. The attacking prowess of the nominal hosts, featuring Olise, Mbappe, Dembele, and Doué, is immense, capable of breaking down any defense, especially one missing its key defender.

The midfield partnership of Tchouaméni and Rabiot will suffocate Senegal's modest midfield, who are too slow and prone to error to mount an effective counterattack. Enduring the favorite's pressure for the entire match is beyond the African side's abilities.

This is the perfect moment to recall official match statistics: France excels at seizing their opportunities in tournaments of this caliber. Winning by a two-goal margin or more is a familiar script for them. Deschamps' squad is eager to kick off the tournament in style and with force.

My pick for this match is a France victory with a handicap of -1.5, with the bookmaker offering odds of 2.33 for this outcome.

Asian handicap 1(-1.5)
2.33
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