Iraq vs Norway prediction
Iraq
The "Lions of Mesopotamia" are making a return to the World Cup after a 40-year hiatus. It's a heartening story, no doubt. But Iraq's journey to America was fraught with challenges. They played a mammoth 21 matches in the qualifiers—more than any other team in the tournament. Graham Arnold's squad fought tooth and nail through playoffs with the UAE and then an intercontinental clash with Bolivia. This isn't a team that bulldozed its way through; they barely scraped through to the World Cup.
Now onto their preparation. Their final warm-up game prior to the tournament was a 0:2 defeat to Venezuela, and deservedly so. Venezuela took the lead in the 17th minute and doubled it early in the second half, also prompting a red card for Iraq. The issue wasn't just the score, but how Iraq looked. Indecisive. The coaching staff even admitted they made some "bizarre mistakes" in defense.
Earlier, they managed a 1:1 draw with Spain in a friendly. Sounds impressive, but the stats tell a different story: 13 shots against 3, an xG of 1.36 versus 0.16, and 66% possession to Spain. Iraq just defended stubbornly throughout the match, capitalizing on a single moment. Replicating this against Norway will be immensely challenging.
And one more thing. Leading up to the Arab Nations Cup in December 2025, Iraq was knocked out in the quarterfinals by Jordan with a 0:1 loss and had been defeated by Algeria 0:2 before that. Against higher-caliber teams, the "Lions" routinely falter. The xG against Algeria was 0.28 compared to 1.55. In a battle against the likes of Manchester City and Arsenal stars, this is, to put it mildly, inadequate.
As for their attacking prowess, that's a separate story. In 2026, the top three scorers of the team netted only one goal each. That's right, just one. Aymen Hussein is a forceful center forward, particularly dangerous in aerial duels, but one player does not make an attack.
Norway
Now let's turn our attention to the Norwegians, where the picture is entirely different.
Ståle Solbakken's squad delivered a flawless European qualifying campaign: 8 wins in 8 games, a perfect 24 points out of 24 possible. Among their victims were Italy (4:1 away, mind you!), Estonia (4:1), Moldova (11:1 and 5:0 over two matches), and Israel (5:0). Norway netted a massive number of goals in the qualifiers, with Haaland alone scoring 16.
This is not the Norway we were accustomed to in the 2000s. This team is a powerhouse. With stars like Haaland, Ødegaard, Sørloth, Nusa, Strand Larsen, Ajer, Ryerson, and Bobb, they boast a galaxy of talent. The cumulative market value of the Norwegian squad runs into billions, while Iraq, as admitted by Graham Arnold's assistant René Meulensteen, falls short of even £20 million. The difference is staggering—25 to 30 times more.
In 9 out of their last 10 official matches, Norway wins by a margin of 2 goals or more. In 4 out of 5 away official matches—the same pattern follows.
Their preparation for the World Cup was superb. A 3:1 victory over Sweden in a friendly on 1 June—22 shots to 9, xG 2.43 against 0.49, with four "big chances" created. Norway absolutely dismantled the Scandinavians. Yes, there was a 1:1 draw with Morocco later, but they still had the xG edge (1.13 against 0.80), despite playing with their reserves and experimenting with strategies.
A specific point to note is their physicality and set pieces. Norway are the second tallest team in the tournament, averaging 186.7 cm, with 10 players over 190 cm tall. Iraq didn't register any corner kicks in the first half against Venezuela and conceded from a set piece. On set pieces, Norway will devour them. According to the coaching staff, they ranked second in Europe for set-piece efficiency in the qualifiers: scoring 5 and conceding none over 8 matches.
Haaland and Ødegaard are fit. Solbakken personally confirmed that Haaland had "his best training in a long time," and Ødegaard completed a strong week of training. Meaning both of the team's stars are all set for the tournament.
Prediction
I'd put my money on Norway with a -1.5 goal spread at odds of 1.6.
The logic is simple. Here we have a team that scored 37 goals in qualifiers, went unbeaten, and beat Italy 4:1 on their turf. A team featuring the likes of Haaland, Ødegaard, and Sørloth. Then there's a team that barely squeezed through the playoffs, lost 0:2 to Venezuela a week before the tournament, and consistently posts an xG ratio of 0.2 against 1.5 when facing strong opponents.
Even Iraq acknowledges their underdog status—statements from Meulensteen and the Norwegian-Iraqi midfielder Marok Fardje reaffirm this. The "Lions'" plan is to sit deep, endure pressure, and wait for a counterattack. The problem is, the longer Iraq sits back, the more chances Norway will have to break them down. And with an attack like Norway's, they surely will.
Then there's motivation. This is Norway's first World Cup appearance since 1998. This "golden generation" arguably has one singular chance to showcase itself on the world stage. Solbakken won't let them get complacent, especially knowing Senegal and France are in line next. Starting with a confident win is crucial here; dropping points against the group stage's weakest opponent would dash their playoff hopes immediately.
And the physical factor can't be overlooked. Boston's expected temperature is around 20°C—perfect conditions for the Scandinavians. Iraq practiced in West Virginia at 25°C, but that doesn't change the main issue: enduring a full 90 minutes against Norwegian pressing will be incredibly taxing.
I'm confident Norway will find the back of the net in the second half when Iraq's energy levels dip. Haaland will notch his first World Cup goal, Ødegaard will provide a couple of assists, and Norway will push for at least a two-goal difference by the end. I'm backing the Norway -1.5 line.
