Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid prediction
Osasuna
Osasuna managed to pull off a spectacular loss against Levante, ending 2-3. Despite starting strong with a 2-0 lead, Lichi's team lost their momentum by the end of the first half. Midway through the match, their goalkeeper, Herrera, got sent off for handballing almost casually near the center of the pitch. Nonetheless, it was only in the 90th minute that they let through the decisive goal by Ettiene Eyonge (2-3). As a result, they've slid down to the 11th spot, yet remain just 3 points away from a European qualification spot, while keeping a 5-point cushion from the relegation zone with just 3 matches remaining. A favorable outcome against Atletico could officially secure their place in the league, while snatching a spot in the Europa Conference League remains a long shot without victories in every remaining match. Apart from Herrera, there are no other noteworthy absences for Osasuna.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico faced a challenging week. First, Simeone’s squad was knocked out of the Champions League in London, succumbing 0-1 to Arsenal in the semi-final's return leg at the Emirates. Following that, the "Rojiblancos" suffered a surprise 0-1 defeat at home against Celta, conceding the lone goal just around the hour mark. It was an arguably unfair result, given Atletico generated 2.04 xG in chances compared to Celta's meager 0.13 xG tally. Now, headed into Pamplona amid fatigue and a grueling schedule, Atletico faces further woes with a slew of absences – minus Alvarez, Cardoso, Barrios, Baena, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Molina, and Giuliano Simeone – leaving the squad rotation significantly hindered.
Prediction
Over their last 11 home matches, the Pamplona side has only succumbed to the reigning champions, Barcelona, in a recent 1-2 loss. They've clinched victory on six occasions and settled for a draw four times during this stretch. Atletico, meanwhile, has little motivation in their season's final stretch compared to Osasuna, who are still fighting to secure their league status (Madrid's position in the top 5 is practically guaranteed). Playing on home turf and facing an Atletico squad riddled with absentees adds to Osasuna's advantage. Considering all these factors, plus the fact that being the host last season, Osasuna outplayed their opponents 2-0, a draw no bet on the home side seems more favorable than backing the visitors.

