Motherwell - Dundee прогноз

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Motherwell and Dundee. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

For Motherwell, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Motherwell conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Similarly, for Dundee, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 159 points to the home team and 172 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Motherwell) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 57.63% of victories for the team Motherwell occurred in home matches. For the team Dundee this indicator is 59.02%. On average, this equates to 58.32%, suggesting a slight advantage for Motherwell all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 58.32% of the home team's points and 41.68% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Motherwell with an advantage of 93 points against 72. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 56.44% to 43.56%.

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 27.4% with a coefficient of 3.65. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 2.35, and for the away team's victory it is 3.32. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 58.47%, and the away team's victory - 41.53%. This differs from our calculations.

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Dundee's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 2.04%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 3.32, while in reality, it should be 3.16.

The mathematical analysis of the betting odds for this match did not reveal any significant inaccuracies. We cannot confidently recommend using our forecast for bets on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.