Bayern Munich - Werder Bremen прогноз

Our app uses a special algorithm to predict the outcome of the match between Bayern Munich and Werder Bremen. This algorithm is designed to detect any inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds by analyzing a vast amount of input data.

For Bayern Munich, we analyze their last 8 matches, taking into account various factors such as the quality of their performance, the match results, the location of the match (whether it was played at home or away), and the strength of their opponents. To determine the strength of the opponents, we look at the results of their previous matches. For each game, we will give the team Bayern Munich conditional points, which later will be used to determine the favorite.

Similarly, for Werder Bremen, we analyze their last 8 matches using the same approach.

After analyzing both teams' last 8 matches, we've assigned 482 points to the home team and 286 points to the away team. This suggests that one team has an advantage over the other. However, it's important to consider that the home team (Bayern Munich) is playing on their own turf, which may slightly improve their chances of winning.

To determine what percentage of victories each team achieves at home and away, we've compiled statistics from several recent years to eliminate any chance-related factors. It turns out that 61.43% of victories for the team Bayern Munich occurred in home matches. For the team Werder Bremen this indicator is 50.82%. On average, this equates to 56.13%, suggesting a slight advantage for Bayern Munich all other things being equal.

Now, to determine the favorite of the match, we will take 56.13% of the home team's points and 43.88% of the away team's points. It turns out that the favorite of the match is Bayern Munich with an advantage of 270 points against 126. If we convert it to a percentage ratio, it will be 68.26% to 31.74%.

Now let's see who the bookmakers consider the favorite and compare their data with our calculations. The bookmakers estimate the probability of a draw in this match at 8.33% with a coefficient of 12.01. The coefficient for the home team's victory is 1.14, and for the away team's victory it is 26.11. If we exclude the draw, the probability of the home team's victory will be 95.82%, and the away team's victory - 4.18%. This differs from our calculations.

As a result of the analysis conducted, an inaccuracy was found in the bookmaker's line. In our opinion, the probability of Werder Bremen's victory is an order of magnitude higher than what the bookmakers think. The difference is 27.56%. The coefficient for the team's victory is 26.11, while in reality, it should be 3.44.

Our mathematical algorithm has detected significant inaccuracies in the bookmakers' odds for this match. Such a large difference can only mean that we have not taken into account some important factor that allows the bookmakers to set such odds. We cannot confidently recommend using our prediction for betting on this match, as the potential profit will be minimal.